JB over at the Balkinization blog has an insightful post about whether or not “winning in the Supreme Court” galvanizes social movements. His conclusion: in the short term, it galvanizes the loser of the case, and in the long-term, tends to work for the winner. In analyzing what is likely to happen after the Heller decision, which JB assumes will be in favor of gun owners, he writes:
Conversely, it is possible that right wing groups like the NRA, unlike the women’s movement, the pro-choice movement, the civil rights movement, and the gay rights movement, will not be demobilized in the short run by a major victory in the courts but in fact will be ever more galvanized. But I wouldn’t bet on it. My guess is that following what I predict will be a significant victory in Heller, the NRA and other gun rights groups will overinvest in litigation to push for additional gun rights victories in the courts, and they will simultaneously experience a short term drop-off in contributions and movement energies.