Categories
Election 2008 Obama Politics

A Hillary or A Gore

Noam Scheiber over at The Stump saying exactly what I’ve been saying for the past two days:

You can let the suspense build and build if you’ve got a Hillary or a Gore socked away somewhere. Possibly a Biden or a Webb (or some unorthodox pick like a general or a Republican). But you’d better not come with Jack Reed or Evan Bayh after toying with people for over a week.

Drudge reported in big headlines that Bayh was the nomine based on these bumper stickers. But now, he seems to have bought the Obama camps pushback on this and is reporting that Bayh has been informed he’s not the nominee. Once again, Drudge is focusing on Biden and the fact that no one knows for sure who the nominee is.

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Election 2008 McCain Obama Politics

A Page from Nixon’s Playbook

Over at The Plank, Jason Zengerle discusses how Steve Schmidt and friends over at the McCain campaign turned Obama’s popularity into a negative:

you’d think that his popularity – which is something extrinsic to the candidate – would be impossible to demonize. Sure, Hillary Clinton tried, with her digs at Obama for making nice speeches before big crowds, but those attacks ultimately fell short. It wasn’t until the McCain campaign’s celebrity ad – and the repeated meme in other McCain spots of Obama standing before adoring crowds chanting his name – that Obama’s popularity came to be viewed as a sign of his own haughtiness.

This reminds me of what Rick Perlstein describes in Nixonland, as the conflict between the Orthogonians and the Franklins that Nixon used to gain political power.

Categories
Election 2008 Obama Politics The Clintons

Reconciling With Hillary

Just wanted to get on record before Obama announces his pick – my money is on Hillary Clinton, although the smart money would be on Joe Biden, and the real dark horse being Al Gore ((Because Tim Kaine, Jack Reed, Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelious, Chet Atkins, and the rest of the lesser lights being too boring to speculate on.) – that despite my initial strong opposition to a Vice President Hillary Clinton (as demonstrated by this and this), I’ve reconciled myself to the idea recently. If it helps Obama win, I’m certainly for it – and as Obama clearly told the Clintons, “No.” initially, I don’t think giving her the nomination now shows weakness. Rather, by including such a prominent and powerful former opponent, it demonstrates strength.

So, now I’m on record – if Obama thinks Hillary Clinton will help him win more than the other candidates, then choose Hillary.

Yes, her connections to the past may muddy his “Change” message and Bill’s sordid connections may prove to be a distraction – but overall, she has demonstrated a political strength that could help unify the party and allow her to speak to groups that Obama has not been able to effectively reach out to yet.

And she’s a fighter. We need someone to take on this new Rovian McCain.

Categories
Election 2008 Humor Obama

Choosing a Vice President

While the title of “greatest prank ever” remains speculative, experts from the Guinness Book of World Records verified shortly before press time that Obama’s announcement likely set the world record for the longest sustained silence from a crowd of over 10,000 people, at roughly over seven minutes.

Yup. (H/t Andrew Sullivan.)

The tension Obama has created by not naming a Vice President for so long is palpable.

Drudge is running the great headline: ‘WOULDN’T YOU LIKE TO KNOW?’ with a picture of a laughing Obama.

Another suggestion from two sources: Obama could announce his VP via a text at 3 am, to show he’s still awake at that time.

Right now, I gotta say, the smart money has to be on Biden or Bayh, although I’m not sure why they would create so much tension for an anti-climactic choice.

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Economics Election 2008 McCain Obama Politics Videos

Barack Obama’s New Ad is Unfair

[digg-reddit-me]

The Obama campaign’s new ad is an unfair and personal attack on McCain and his character. It’s a cheap shot. And it’s a perfect response to John McCain’s unfair and personal (and also dishonest) attacks on Obama in recent weeks.

This is how Democrats hit back.

If this is the kind of campaign McCain wants to run, there’s a whole lot more where this came from.

Categories
Election 2008 Humor Politics Videos

Another Third Party Candidate for President

You can run too…But be patient – the link is a bit slow.

(Hint – just change the values of the name in this link.)

Categories
Domestic issues Economics Election 2008 Foreign Policy McCain Obama Politics The Opinionsphere

Why I Am Still Confident About Obama’s Campaign

[digg-reddit-me]Drudge has the scare headline up today. And pundits across the world are speculating about why Obama hasn’t blown McCain away yet. Yet I’m still confident in Obama’s campaign.

One of my first blog posts – and my first blog post to gain a sizeable readership – ran last October 12 when Obama was trailing Hillary by sizable margins and was entitled: “Why I Am Confident About Obama.”

My conclusion – despite the media’s almost universal consensus that no one could take down the Clinton juggernaut at that late date (with a 20 point lead nationwide and a slim lead for Clinton in Iowa) – was:

Clintonian hubris, an Obama strategy to put the pressure on Clinton late, with Iowa in a statistical dead heat, and a ton of other primaries following hard-upon Iowa.  It seems to me that Obama has a good chance of winning even if he doesn’t hit his stride.

The overall perception driving me to this conclusion was that Obama was the natural candidate for this time – that his candidacy and person fit the moment in a way no other candidate’s did. George F. Will, among a few other astute observers of American politics, saw this too. Obama was the candidate that fit the times – and he had a smart and hard-nosed plan for getting the nomination from Hillary and the presidency from any Republican. The intellectual ferment, the grassroots enthusiasm, and the international support for Obama all confirm that he is the candidate of the zeitgeist.

These fundamentals have not changed.

Which is why, now, with McCain ahead of Obama by five points nationally (the first lead he has had against the presumptive Democratic nominee) and with McCain outspending Obama in many key states, and with many media supporters of Obama beginning to panic and conservatives beginning to gloat, and McCain finally finding his voice given the prospect of a war with Russia – I am still confident about the Obama campaign.

  1. I trust the Obama campaign’s game plan. They have run one of the best campaigns in recent memory – they are confident and they have a plan. They beat the feared Clinton machine. And they knew it after Super Tuesday – months before anyone else. They strategized perfectly and executed their plans almost flawlessly. No other campaign this election cycle can say that.
  2. Obama will get more bounce from the Democratic National Convention next week than McCain will get from the Republican National Convention the week after. Why? Because Obama does not have George W. Bush and Dick Cheney speaking at his convention.
  3. Contrary to the “conventional wisdom” of the right-wing opinionsphere, Obama has more to gain from debates with McCain than McCain. Obama’s presence and answers will stand in stark contrast to the terrifying image of “Barack Hussein Obama.” Just as Ronald Reagan did not take a clear lead over incumbent Jimmy Carter until just after their sole debate (in the last week of the campaign) – so Obama will capitalize on his debates. Reagan was running as a change agent light on specifics, high on rhetoric and hope, against a reformer who defended a good deal of the status quo whose party had been blamed for significant foreign policy and economic disasters at a time when most people felt their country was going in the wrong direction. Many people didn’t feel comfortable with Reagan until they saw him stand side-by-side with Carter and felt he seemed reasoanble. The same dynamic seems to be working now.
  4. Obama’s supporters discovered in July and August that he’s not a perfect candidate. He supported the FISA compromise; he explained again that he was in favor of individual gun rights; he reiterated his longstanding support for faith-based programs; he went back on his (slightly hedged) promise to participate in the federal financing program for the general election campaign. They’ve been getting antsy. But with the serious prospect of a McCain presidency, most of those who care about liberal values will discover how much better Obama is than the alterative.
  5. McCain doesn’t do frontrunner well.
  6. Polls are only as good as their turnout models. Obama’s supporters come from those demographics least likely to have a landline – and thus, many of his supporters are not taken into account in polls. Plus, if black Americans and young Americans turn out at higher than predicted levels – given that both groups are extremely energized by the Obama campaign – this could tip the election further.
  7. If McCain is understood to be the frontrunner, his gaffes suddenly take on a new importance – and the media will be much tougher in covering him. Thus far, they’ve treated him with kid gloves – and mainly ignored his negatives (because they’ve been ignoring him altogether.) Where is the Iraq-Pakistan border again, Mr. McCain?
  8. Although McCain is outspending Obama now in some key states, Obama will have far more money down the stretch – and already has a more significant campaign organization in each state than Kerry or Gore did. Right now, he is spending most of his money on creating boots on the ground and campaign infrastructure which he can call on in November to turn out the vote. Once McCain’s spending is restricted, Obama can saturate any market he wants with ads.
  9. Obama’s supporters are more enthusiastic. McCain’s are too old to be enthusiastic, and most don’t like him all that much anyway.
  10. Much of the public still sees McCain as a maverick rather than as someone who “totally supports” Bush on “the transcendent issues” like Iraq. Most of the public does not know that McCain has flip-flopped on torture and on economic policy – and that four more years of McCain promise to be no better than four more years of Bush with regards to the economy.
  11. Finally – and the biggest reason – neither Obama nor his surrogates have started to attack McCain yet. They have local issue ads up in many states already. But the Vice Presidential nominee’s number one job will be to take the fight to McCain. McCain is wide open to attacks on so many fronts –

I trust the Obama campaign has a plan and that they will execute it well. That plan will include hitting McCain hard when he has less money to spare. There’s no guarantee, but Obama’s chances are still very good – and he has been consistently doing better in the polls than Gore or Kerry at similar times in the race. Obama has said that he is in this to win.

I hope so – and I know I will do all I can to ensure that he does.

Categories
Election 2008 National Security Obama Politics Videos

Obama Tells You Why You Shouldn’t Be Disillusioned Because of His FISA Vote

[digg-reddit-me]

Following up on this.

H/t Andrew Sullivan.

Categories
Election 2008 McCain Politics

The Cross in the Sand

Andrew Sullivan has been questioning McCain’s cross-in-the-sand story. You know – that heart-tugging tale that McCain tells at every event he goes to – in order to demonstrate his Christian faith (and mention his bravery as a POW). And if you have a story like that in your life, you have every right to tell it.

But as Sullivan has been pointing out, McCain’s story is a bit suspicious. He once told the story as if it had happened to someone else. He had never told the story before 1999 despite his numerous public statements, descriptions, and essays about his time in captivity. And the story has gradually changed since it’s first telling in 1999, resembling more and more the story Chuck Colson told about Alexander Solzhenitzen.

Andrew Sullivan – who has been very supportive of McCain over the years – and supported him in the Republican primary – has been making the case in respectful terms, always trying to give McCain the benefit of the doubt.

The McCain campaign, with it as ever, responds in a blog post:

It may be typical of the pro-Obama Dungeons & Dragons crowd to disparage a fellow countryman’s memory of war from the comfort of mom’s basement, but most Americans have the humility and gratitude to respect and learn from the memories of men who suffered on behalf of others. John McCain has often said he witnessed a thousand acts of bravery while he was imprisoned, and though not every one has been submitted into the public record, they are remembered by the men who were there (one such only recently reported by Karl Rove though it escaped mention in any of Senator McCain’s books). But as Swindle said, this is a “desperate group of people trying to make something out of nothing.”

Of course, the article the McCain blog links to explains how reticent McCain is, always refraining from telling stories about himself – which is why he answered every question he was asked by Pastor Rick Warren Sunday night with an anecdote that made him seem like a G. I. Joe. Telling such anecdotes is what McCain does – and what Karl Rove claims in his op-ed piece that McCain does not do enough (because he is so modest!).

Of course, what is most telling about this McCain post is that he references a role-playing game from the 1970s.

This guy’s older than the polio vaccine. No, really.

Categories
Election 2008 Humor McCain Obama Politics

A Card to Send to Those You Love